On March 4, National Democratic Institute Director Lauren Van Metre joined Liberal International President Hakima El-Haité for a discussion moderated by former Swedish Minister of European Affairs Birgitta Ohlsson on COP28 and the future of climate policies and democracy.
Conferences like COP28 always produce mixed emotions, began moderator Ohlsson. “Too little too late […] we’ve reached what was possible […] or it could have been far worse.”
Van Metre remarked that COP’s incrementalism was on full display in Dubai: of the $40 billion in financing needed for an adequate loss and damage fund, only $70 million was pledged, and at the last minute the first ever international pledge on fossil fuels was changed from a complete phase out to a phase down.
Speaking from Rabat, Morocco, El Haité pointed out that while Africa holds the greatest potential for solar power production, it is woefully underfunded, receiving only 3% of needed financing.
She also criticised the housing of the loss and damage fund established at COP28 in the World Bank, which offers conditional financing. “We know how the World Bank will finance on a basis of loans the loss and damage mechanism, but for the Global South this is a question not of solidarity but a question of justice.”
However, Van Metre and El Haité agreed that the first global stocktake was a standout of the Dubai conference – an “accountability moment” that showed countries need to be more innovative with their second round of Nationally Determined Contributions, climate action plans to cut emissions and adapt to climate change.
For Van Metre, the need to innovate NDCs goes hand in hand with liberals’ answer to climate change: the governance crisis around climate action demands greater democratic participation, evidenced by the growing phenomenon of “greenlash,” in which citizens feel a disconnect from and resist climate action policies. This shows citizens need to participate in the development of NDCs, and knowledge of climate adaptation and mitigation needs to reach the levels of local government.
“If we don’t transform the agenda of climate change to a citizenship agenda, we will not succeed,” concluded El Haité.
NDCs should be measured not just by their climate ambitions, suggested Van Metre, but by the quality of the processes used in their development – how participatory they are and the accountability mechanisms built into their oversight.
The global stocktake was a positive first step, and as El Haité pointed out, “the next NDCs will be the first of their kind with CO2 emissions data.”
In fact, this was the first COP where fossil fuels were formally and critically addressed on the agenda of negotiations. “After 28 years of negotiations: we are talking about fossil fuels and their responsibility. It used to be taboo to talk about it.”
Despite criticisms of greenwashing as COP was held in a petrostate with a poor human rights track reecord, El Haité said that COP remains one of the most important forums for climate-vulnerable countries to elevate their agendas and forces emitters to meet with them.
“Having COP in an oil state is an opportunity to [present] oil companies with their responsibilities.”
“Where COP is held is not as important as what it can achieve.”
Discussion ended on a hopeful note, with Van Metre imploring politicians to view the growing phenomenon of ‘greenwashing’ as a democratic awakening and an opportunity for citizen engagement rather than a roadblock to progress.
